Looking at the picture, I think that the configuration that you would get the "best" answer is either VCB or VCBB.
I grabbed the attached picture from the Brain Filler page -
Source (I tried to put it inline but this forum theme doesn't autoscale images)
Like you mentioned, the lugs likely aren't directing the arc out of the box. I think that it is more likely that the arc will propagate towards the side of the box and then out/down. There will be reflection off the back of the box and side.
The energy distribution would be the same as VCB and VCBB, but I think its going to be closer to the real world answer than HCB; without under-estimating.
I would like to hear some other people's thoughts on this too.
Cheers,
Jeff M